How Will Phillips 66 Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Financial Performance - Phillips 66 is expected to report fiscal Q2 earnings of $1.75 per share and sales of $32.1 billion, reflecting a 26% decrease in earnings and a 16% drop in sales compared to last year's figures of $2.38 per share and $38.1 billion [2] - In Q1, the company reported net earnings of $487 million, a significant increase from $8 million in Q4, with strong performance in midstream, chemical, and marketing segments offsetting losses in refining [2] - The current market capitalization of Phillips 66 stands at $51 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months reaching $138 billion, and operating profits of $604 million alongside net income of $1.9 billion [2] Historical Trends - Historical data indicates that Phillips 66 stock has fallen 63% of the time on the day following earnings announcements, with a median decline of 2.5% and maximum one-day negative returns reaching 6% [2] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points, with favorable one-day returns observed approximately 37% of the time, which increases to 45% when considering the last three years [4] - The median of the seven positive returns is 1.5%, while the median of the twelve negative returns is -2.5% [4] Correlation Analysis - A strategy to analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings announcements can help traders adjust their positions accordingly [3][5] - The correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns can be utilized to position trades effectively, especially if the 1D return is positive [5]