New Gold to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - New Gold (NGD) is expected to report a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025, with a projected 400% rise year-over-year to $0.10, driven by improved gold prices and higher production levels [1][4][23] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGD's EPS has remained stable at 10 cents over the past 60 days, indicating a substantial increase from the previous year's EPS of 2 cents [1] - New Gold has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 79.2% [2][3] Production and Costs - For Q2 2025, total gold production is expected to range between 71,314 ounces and 86,514 ounces, reflecting a growth of 4-26% compared to the same quarter in 2024 [9] - The company anticipates consolidated gold production for 2025 to be between 325,000 and 365,000 ounces, marking a 16% increase year-over-year [7] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to be $1,025-$1,125 per ounce in 2025, a 17% decrease at the midpoint due to higher production and lower operating costs [14] Market Conditions - Gold prices averaged around $3,301.42 per ounce in Q2 2025, a 41% year-over-year increase, influenced by various economic factors including geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks [6] - The favorable pricing environment for gold is expected to positively impact New Gold's upcoming earnings, as well as those of other gold mining companies [16] Valuation and Investment Thesis - New Gold's stock has increased by 76.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 57.3% [17] - The company is trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 2.19X, which is lower than the industry average of 3.39X, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [18] - The consolidation of interest in the New Afton mine to 100% is expected to enhance future free cash flow, with gold output projected to grow by 38% from 2024 to 2027 [19][22]