Fair Isaac to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on July 30, with projected revenues of $518.8 million, reflecting a 15.8% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) of $7.73, indicating a 23.7% growth from the previous year [1][9]. Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FICO's third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenues is $518.8 million, suggesting a 15.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $7.73 per share, which is a 23.7% year-over-year growth, although it has decreased slightly over the past 30 days [1]. Recent Performance Trends - FICO's earnings have missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 0.97% [2]. - The company's third-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from sustained growth in Scores revenues, driven by the adoption of advanced scoring solutions and strong consumer demand [3]. Sector-Specific Developments - In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, FICO saw strong momentum in the adoption of FICO Score 10T, particularly in the mortgage sector, with new lenders joining the early-adopter program, which is expected to continue into the third quarter [4]. - Professional Services revenues are likely to rise sequentially in the upcoming quarter due to prior delays that pushed revenue recognition into the new quarter [5]. - Despite a cautious macro environment, FICO's Software business remains resilient, with expectations of stronger annual recurring revenue growth supported by a healthy deal pipeline and solid net retention among existing clients [6]. Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, FICO currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [7].