研究值公布在即 人身险预定利率有望调降

Core Viewpoint - The expected reduction in the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is becoming a consensus in the industry due to the continuous decline in market interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustment - The upcoming second quarter meeting of the expert advisory committee may lead to a further reduction in the predetermined interest rate research value for ordinary life insurance products, which is currently at 2.13%, down from 2.34% at the beginning of the year [1][2]. - If the research value is announced to be below 2.25%, it will trigger the adjustment mechanism for the maximum predetermined interest rates of life insurance products [2]. - The anticipated research value for the second quarter of 2025 is estimated to be around 2.01%, a decrease of 12 basis points from the previous value [2]. Group 2: Key Interest Rates Impact - The expected reduction in the predetermined interest rate is primarily driven by the decline in three key interest rates: the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.5%, the 5-year fixed deposit rate at 1.3%, and the 10-year government bond yield at approximately 1.72% [3]. - The maximum predetermined interest rates for ordinary life insurance products are expected to decrease by 0.5 percentage points, with new limits projected at 2.0% for ordinary products, 1.5% for participating products, and 1.0% for universal products [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Insurance Companies - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to optimize the liability costs for insurance companies, allowing for increased market entry of insurance funds due to lower liability costs and a rising preference for equity investments [5][6]. - The shift towards floating yield products is encouraged to enhance asset-liability management and achieve high-quality development in the industry [6]. - The long-term outlook suggests that traditional insurance predetermined rates may reach their lowest levels since the 1990s, providing more growth opportunities for floating yield products [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The anticipated reduction in predetermined interest rates may boost product sales, although the "炒停售" phenomenon (speculative buying and selling) is expected to be less pronounced compared to previous years [7].