标普新高背后的隐忧：曾精准预测08危机的经济学家揭秘美国经济“暴风雨前的平静”

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan warns that while the U.S. economy appears stable in the short term, multiple shocks will eventually manifest, necessitating careful observation to foresee upcoming impacts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Policies - Rajan highlights that the current economic data and stock market performance, including the S&P 500 reaching a historical high, may provide the Trump administration with more leeway to implement aggressive policies such as increasing tariffs and expanding fiscal deficits [1] - The average actual tariff level in the U.S. has reportedly reached 20%, which is ten times higher than at the beginning of the year, indicating significant trade policy shifts [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Monetary Policy Concerns - The delayed impact of tariffs on economic data is attributed to the government's repeated extensions of negotiation deadlines and companies' proactive measures such as stockpiling and adjusting supply chains [2] - Rajan expresses concern over the Trump administration's interference in monetary policy, citing recent pressures on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could undermine the Fed's independence [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Principles - Rajan criticizes the government's rejection of traditional economic principles such as central bank independence, low tariffs, and open markets, warning that these changes could lead to significant economic downturns [3] - He draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the Brexit scenario, suggesting that the potential negative consequences of current policies may only become apparent over time, similar to the delayed effects seen in the U.K. post-Brexit [3]