Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-07-24 23:07Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable divergence in performance among listed companies as they release their mid-year earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of declining profits and increasing losses for many firms [1][2][8]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of July 17, 2025, 61 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [2]. - Among these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the firms are projected to report losses [2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like Jin Di Group and Huashang City experiencing significant losses, while some firms like Dayue City and Chengjian Development have managed to turn losses into profits [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - In the group of 24 companies expecting profits, only Poly Developments and Binjiang Group are projected to earn over 1 billion, with Poly's profit expected to drop by 63.15% year-on-year [3][4]. - Binjiang Group's profit is expected to increase by 40% to 70%, attributed to a higher volume of delivered properties compared to the previous year [3]. - Chengjian Development is expected to achieve a profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of up to 575.14% due to successful project deliveries [4]. Group 3: Losses and First-Time Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Shares and Xijiang Holdings, with some firms projecting losses exceeding 10 billion [5][7]. - Vanke is anticipated to incur the highest loss, estimated between 100 billion and 120 billion, due to a significant decline in project settlement scale and low gross margins [6][7]. - Greenland Holdings and Xinda Real Estate are also expected to report substantial losses, with estimates of 30 billion to 35 billion [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall performance of real estate companies reflects the ongoing downward trend in the market, with sales volume and price indicators weakening [8][9]. - However, there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of the year, with expectations of a turning point as market conditions improve [8]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales volume of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is slowing [9].