流动性风暴前夜 美联储内部激辩：基准利率该换了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the assessment of monetary supply tightness and the appropriate benchmark interest rate for the Federal Reserve has intensified as excess liquidity in the U.S. financial system is expected to continue shrinking in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Limitations - Several experts, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and JPMorgan analyst Teresa Ho, have pointed out the limitations of the federal funds rate as a measure of liquidity, suggesting that the Fed should consider alternative tools [1][3]. - The federal funds market, once a key indicator of financing conditions, has seen a significant decline in daily trading volume, now averaging about $110 billion, which is only 0.5% of commercial bank assets, compared to 2% before 2008 [1]. - The overnight general collateral repurchase agreement rate has become a more significant pricing basis for benchmark rates, with daily trading volumes reaching several trillion dollars [1]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Tools - The true levers of monetary control have shifted to a series of rates set directly by the Fed, including the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate [3][4]. - The federal funds rate has remained relatively stable at 4.33% as of July 23, despite adjustments to policy rates, indicating a disconnect from actual market dynamics [3][4]. - Experts argue that the federal funds rate is no longer at the core of monetary market dynamics, raising concerns about its ability to signal potential liquidity pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market is facing potential liquidity pressures as the U.S. Treasury slows cash reserve rebuilding, with expectations that the use of reverse repo tools may approach zero in September [5][7]. - Historical context shows that in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet reduction led to significant rate spikes due to insufficient bank reserves, highlighting the importance of monitoring reserve levels [5]. - Experts suggest that alternative indicators, such as the three-party general collateral rate (TGCR), may better reflect real funding flows and should be considered as replacements for the federal funds rate [7].