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中国银河证券:25年猪价相对平稳运行 关注生猪养殖攻守兼备布局机会
智通财经网·2025-07-25 00:12

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of focusing on the pig farming industry, highlighting both offensive and defensive investment opportunities due to the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency. It is anticipated that pig prices may show a downward trend in 2025, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year, coupled with cost reductions leading to profits exceeding expectations. Attention should be given to high-quality pig companies with significant marginal cost changes and good financial conditions [1][4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with an increasing market share for quality enterprises [1][4] - There is a correlation between yellow chicken prices and pig prices, and considering the low supply side, there is potential for price increases in the future [1][4] Group 2 - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year, with a 19% decrease in agricultural trade deficit. The CPI for June was +0.1% year-on-year, with food items down by 0.3%, and pork prices down by 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The agricultural index outperformed the CSI 300 from early July to July 22, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising by 7.35%, while the CSI 300 increased by 4.65%. The livestock sector saw a notable increase of 11.2% [2] - In July, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs improved month-on-month, with the price of pigs reaching a peak of 21.06 yuan/kg in mid-August before fluctuating downwards. As of July 16, 2025, the price was 14.96 yuan/kg, down 8% from the end of 2024 [3] - The export volume and price of pet food fell in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.22% in export value. However, the cumulative export value for the first half of 2025 showed a slight increase of 0.4% [3]