原油：宏观情绪有所缓和 需求预期修复推升油价

Market Overview - As of July 25, international oil prices have risen due to easing concerns over U.S. tariffs and the support from the traditional fuel season in the U.S. NYMEX crude futures for September rose by $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, a 1.20% increase; ICE Brent crude futures for September rose by $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, a 0.98% increase [1] - The main contract for China's INE crude futures increased by 0.4 to 504.3 yuan per barrel, with a night session rise of 2.8 to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1] Important News - A bill approved by the House Appropriations Committee proposes to terminate the annual funding of approximately $6 million to the IEA, which accounts for 14% of its total budget; however, the bill's legislative prospects remain uncertain due to the need for Senate support [1] - South Africa's Mineral Resources Minister announced plans to restart two state-owned refineries within five years to enhance liquid fuel supply security [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Bharat Petroleum Corp. (BPCL) has purchased 1 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, expected to arrive between September and October, highlighting the refinery's procurement strategy in the Middle East [2] - The Republic of Congo's crude oil exports are expected to decrease from 237,000 barrels per day in August to 184,000 barrels per day in September due to reduced cargo volumes [2] - The U.S. July PMI preliminary value rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, marking the highest level since December 2024 and indicating continued expansion [2] European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value increased from 50.6 in June to 51.0, remaining in the expansion zone for the seventh consecutive month [3] - The services index rose significantly to 51.2, while the manufacturing index slightly increased to 49.8, remaining below the neutral line [3] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices increased overnight due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and demand expectations; key progress in trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. has alleviated concerns over global industrial demand [4] - U.S. employment data continues to improve, supporting the outlook for industrial oil demand [4] - Short-term supply factors include unexpected declines in U.S. inventories and restrictions on Russian gasoline exports, but OPEC+ production plans and U.S.-China trade uncertainties pose upward resistance [4] Short-term Strategy - The suggested short-term trading strategy indicates resistance levels for WTI at $67-$68, Brent at $69-$70, and SC at 512-515 [5]