东京7月核心CPI同比涨2.9%，通胀降温支撑日本央行加息路径

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, down from 3.1% in June, marking the first drop below 3% since March this year [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to the Tokyo government's summer water fee exemption and a gradual decrease in energy prices, with Tokyo water fees dropping by 34.6%, the largest decline since records began in 1971 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding energy prices, remained steady at 3.1%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures [4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Key factors for the inflation decline include adjustments in energy prices, water prices, and fluctuations in rice prices, with expectations for continued cooling in inflation rates [4] - Despite the decrease in electricity and gas costs, household living cost pressures remain, particularly due to soaring rice prices, which increased by 81.8% year-on-year in July [4] - The Japanese government has implemented measures to release emergency reserves to curb rice prices, but the effects are not yet fully realized [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Voter dissatisfaction with rising consumer prices was reflected in the recent election results, leading to a historic defeat for Prime Minister Kishida [5] - Investors are closely monitoring potential government responses to inflation, including cash subsidies or adjustments to consumption tax, with the Prime Minister previously proposing cash subsidies [5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5%, but inflation data and political developments may influence future decisions [5]