大码蛋供应偏紧支撑蛋价上涨 短期再涨空间或收窄

Core Insights - Domestic egg prices in China are experiencing an overall upward trend driven by tightening supply and demand conditions [1] - The average price of eggs in the third week of July reached 8.38 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% increase from the previous week [1] - The futures market saw the main egg contract hit a new high of 3691 yuan per 500 kilograms on July 23 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High temperatures have led to a decrease in egg production rates and egg weight, resulting in tight supply of large eggs in production areas [1] - The average price of eggs in major production areas was reported at 3.31 yuan per jin, a 27.31% increase since the beginning of July [1] - Trade sentiment is bullish as traders are actively purchasing low-priced sources, improving market turnover [1] Inventory Levels - As of July 24, the inventory in the production segment was 0.50 days, a decrease of 13.8% from the previous week [1] - The circulation segment inventory was 0.68 days, down 8.10% from the previous week [1] - The decline in inventory levels is attributed to high temperatures affecting production rates and the tight supply of large eggs [1] Market Outlook - Institutions remain cautious about the short-term price increase potential, noting limited acceptance in the terminal market [2] - The expected average price in the third quarter is projected to be around 4.30 yuan per jin, with a minimum expected price of 3.77 yuan per jin [2] - Despite the current high prices, the market may stabilize in the short term, with limited overall price increases anticipated [2]