智通财经网·2025-07-25 06:29Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the express delivery industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in 2025, despite a temporary slowdown in growth due to an earlier promotional cycle in June [1] - The industry is experiencing intensified price competition in the first half of 2025, but the State Post Bureau's call to "reduce internal competition" is likely to control the intensity of this competition, promoting long-term high-quality development [1] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies with more certain growth in performance, particularly in the e-commerce express delivery sector [1] Industry Performance - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume in China reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with a slight month-on-month decline due to the early 618 promotional cycle [1] - For Q2 2025, the total express delivery volume was 50.51 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - The trend towards smaller packages and the convenience of e-commerce promotions and returns are driving the growth in express delivery volume, surpassing the State Post Bureau's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] Company Market Share - The market share of major express delivery companies has increased in Q2 2025, with SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express achieving market shares of 8.7%, 15.6%, 12.9%, and 12.9% respectively in June 2025 [2] - The CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) for the express delivery industry reached 87.0 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.7 compared to the previous year, indicating a notable rise in the focus on leading companies [2] Pricing Trends - In June 2025, the express delivery industry revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year, while the average revenue per package decreased by 5.8% [3] - For Q2 2025, the industry revenue increased by 9.3%, with a 6.8% decline in average revenue per package [3] - The decline in average revenue per package has narrowed both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a moderation in price competition [3] - The State Post Bureau's emphasis on opposing "internal competition" is expected to alleviate pressure on companies and franchisees, promoting a healthier competitive environment in the long term [3]