全球贸易谈判取得进展，黄金冲高回落

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]