多部门表态推动落后光伏产能有序退出 ,绿电直连等政策将催生多元领域需求释放

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with issues such as irrational competition, low-price bidding, and intellectual property disputes being highlighted [1][2]. Industry Overview - The production growth rate for domestic photovoltaic cells and modules remained below 15% in the first half of 2025, while the production of polysilicon and silicon wafers experienced negative growth. Average prices across various segments have decreased significantly, with reductions of 88.3%, 89.6%, 80.8%, and 66.4% compared to the highest prices since 2020 [2]. - In terms of application, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China reached 212.21 GW in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 107% [2]. - Export data for the first half of 2025 shows a mixed performance: silicon wafer exports decreased by 7.5%, battery cell exports increased by 74.4%, and module exports fell by 2.82%. Overall export value has declined for two consecutive years, with a 26% drop in the first half of 2025 [2]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy Administration, emphasized the need to standardize the photovoltaic industry and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. They aim to address issues of irrational competition and promote high-quality development [3]. - The government is focusing on creating a market environment that prioritizes innovation, quality, and fairness, while also encouraging technological advancements and improving product quality [3]. Market Predictions - The global photovoltaic installation forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 531-583 GW to 570-630 GW, while China's forecast has been adjusted from 215-255 GW to 270-300 GW. This is attributed to solid project integration and stable demand in mature market provinces [6]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that renewable energy will meet 95% of global electricity demand growth from 2025 to 2027, with solar photovoltaic expected to account for about half of this growth [6]. Emerging Trends - The "green electricity direct connection" policy is expected to broaden application scenarios for photovoltaic energy, enhancing the integration of renewable energy into the power system and reducing electricity costs for enterprises [8][9]. - The policy aims to support high-energy-consuming industries and data centers by facilitating direct supply of green electricity, which could lead to the development of zero-carbon parks and microgrids [9].