美日贸易协议扫除障碍，日本央行年内加息概率飙升

Group 1 - The Japan-US trade agreement, effective from July 22, 2025, significantly reduces Japan's auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, creating conditions for the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy [1] - Following the agreement, the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching 146.82, while Japanese government bond futures declined, indicating a market shift towards higher interest rate expectations [1] - The probability of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased from approximately 60% to around 80% by the end of the year, with many respondents anticipating a potential hike in January 2026 or October 2025 [1] Group 2 - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June 2025, down from 3.5% in May, driven mainly by food price inflation, still above the 2% target [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's nominal GDP will fall to fifth place globally, overtaken by India, due to yen depreciation affecting dollar-denominated GDP [2] - The Bank of Japan is balancing multiple objectives, focusing on price stability while assessing global financial market volatility's impact on the yen, with potential concerns for export companies if the yen appreciates rapidly [2]