欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：进一步降息必要性不大 利率将进入“稳健时代”

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has no compelling reason to lower interest rates further unless the economy faces significant setbacks, as stated by Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1][2]. Interest Rate Policy - Kazaks emphasized that maintaining the current interest rate is sensible, indicating that the era of impulsive rate changes is over [1]. - The current deposit rate is at 2%, which is seen as neutral, neither suppressing nor stimulating economic activity [3]. Economic Outlook - Kazaks noted that there is still substantial monetary easing yet to impact the economy, following a year of significant rate cuts [2]. - The ECB's recent decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged reflects a cautious approach while awaiting clarity on U.S. trade negotiations [1]. Trade and Currency Considerations - Kazaks plans to monitor trade negotiations, service sector inflation, manufacturing recovery, and exchange rate issues closely [4]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns about export prices and import costs [4]. - Kazaks warned that if the euro rises above 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the economic situation, potentially prompting the ECB to consider rate cuts again [4]. Future Actions - Kazaks advised patience in assessing the outcomes of trade agreements before making policy decisions, highlighting the need to avoid actions based on speculation [4]. - He mentioned that resolving trade disputes could enhance confidence, supporting investment and consumption, thereby mitigating negative impacts from tariffs [4].