Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, marking the first pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, amid moderate economic growth and inflation reaching the 2% target [1][2] - The ECB's deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively, with inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2027 set at 2.0% and 2026 at 1.6% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US-EU trade negotiations, particularly the potential for tariffs up to 30% on EU goods, is a significant external factor impacting the ECB's policy space [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade negotiations are affecting corporate decision-making and may lead to a shift in production capacity towards the eurozone, potentially lowering product prices and increasing price instability [2] - The ECB's assessment indicates a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in actual GDP for the eurozone in Q1, driven by preemptive shipping by businesses and stronger consumption and investment [2][3] - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone rose to 51 from 50.6 in June, indicating a notable expansion in the services sector, although manufacturing remains in contraction [2]
综述｜欧洲央行维持利率不变 关税谈判加剧政策不确定性
Xin Hua She·2025-07-25 08:16