美股Q2财报季开局强劲！企业盈利引擎持续发力有望支撑涨势

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Q2 earnings season for U.S. stocks indicates that corporate earnings are robust, potentially alleviating concerns about the overheated market following record highs in stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Approximately one-third of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with about 83% exceeding analyst expectations, potentially marking the highest "surprise" ratio since Q2 2021 [1][4]. - Prior to the earnings season, the expected year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was 2.8%, but the current overall growth rate has reached 4.5% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The S&P 500 index has risen 28% since its low on April 8, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 also reaching record highs, as concerns over tariffs have diminished and investors return to the market [4]. - Companies like Alphabet, D.R. Horton, and Netflix have expressed optimism about their future prospects, with Alphabet citing increased demand for AI products [5]. - The labor market remains resilient, as evidenced by a decline in initial jobless claims for six consecutive weeks, which may reassure investors [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is approximately 22.5, compared to the 10-year average of 18.6, raising concerns about high valuations and limited margin for error [5][6]. - Companies failing to meet both earnings and revenue expectations are facing the most severe stock price penalties since Q3 2022 [6]. - There are signs of "bubble" behavior in the market, with meme stocks experiencing significant price increases reminiscent of the extreme investor enthusiasm seen in 2021 [6].