中加基金权益周报|央行积极呵护税期流动性，信用利差收窄

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 243.3 billion, 251.2 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 58.2 billion, 150.5 billion, and -65.4 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 270.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 49 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates experienced a downward fluctuation last week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's active fund injection, anti-involution trading, and the listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [2] Liquidity Tracking - The buyout reverse repurchase operations amounted to 1.4 trillion, with an OMO net injection of 130 million, indicating overall stable tax period funds, which eased after the tax period [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with June industrial output increasing by 6.8% and retail sales by 4.8%. Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first half of the year rose by 2.8%. New loans in June reached 2.2 trillion, an increase of 110 billion year-on-year [4] Overseas Market - U.S. inflation in June was lower than expected, while retail sales remained strong, indicating that tariffs have a manageable impact on inflation. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% over the week, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat [5] Equity Market - The Wind All A index has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly average trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion. There are signs of capital flowing out of the consumer sector due to CPI data and underwhelming performance from some food and beverage stocks, while the TMT sector remains strong. As of July 17, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,891.142 billion, an increase of 30.647 billion from July 10, marking nine consecutive trading days of net growth [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has preliminarily priced in a weakening economy for Q3 and has reacted to anti-involution policies and a recovery in risk appetite. However, the performance of non-spread varieties indicates a cautious outlook on liquidity. Future uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, domestic economic changes, and policy responses may lead to fluctuations in bond yields. The anti-involution policy is expected to boost commodity prices and risk appetite in the short term, but the central bank's clear support for liquidity during the tax period suggests a high likelihood of maintaining a loose monetary stance. The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern, favoring the holding of coupon assets. Trading positions should remain flexible, focusing on policy expectations and liquidity changes. In the convertible bond market, the index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with differentiation in bank themes and notable performance in anti-involution themes and the computing robot industry chain. Current price levels show increased volatility in convertible bonds across various price bands, with diminished asymmetric risk advantages. Given the ongoing supply-demand structure, reinvestment pressure remains significant amid a trend towards bubble formation, necessitating a focus on niche bonds and structural opportunities within the industry chain [7]