缪延亮：国际货币体系新形势下 可从四方面推进人民币国际化

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) through four key strategies: advancing RMB settlement and pricing, constructing a closed-loop financing system, issuing offshore stablecoins, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in the International Monetary System - The credibility of the US dollar is weakening, as evidenced by the recent volatility in US stocks, bonds, and currency, leading to a decline in the perceived safety of US Treasury bonds [1]. - The rise of "Made in China" is notable, with significant advancements in strategic emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, 5G communication, and AI, enhancing the market's focus on Chinese manufacturing [1]. - The restructuring of the trade system is evident, with the US imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, indicating a reduced willingness to act as the global consumer, which may decrease the dollar's role in trade settlements [1]. Group 2: Implications for the Renminbi - The RMB is experiencing upward pressure on its value, moving away from depreciation expectations, particularly after strong measures were taken in April [3]. - The nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown signs of undervaluation, suggesting potential for appreciation in the future [3]. - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has decreased by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025, despite a significant trade surplus [3]. Group 3: Sources of Appreciation Pressure on the Renminbi - The weakening of the dollar's dual anchors has reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB, while internal manufacturing surpluses are on the rise [4]. - China possesses a complete fiscal sovereignty and a relatively healthy fiscal situation, providing the government with the capacity to expand fiscal spending and offer safe assets to international investors [4]. Group 4: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - The first recommendation is to advance RMB settlement and pricing, particularly in the commodities sector, where China is the largest consumer [5]. - The second recommendation involves constructing a closed-loop financing system by enhancing the return on RMB assets and expanding capital project openness [5]. - The third recommendation is to issue offshore stablecoins, with a pilot program in Hong Kong, leveraging China's manufacturing advantages [5]. - The fourth recommendation is to restore and enhance the RMB's exchange rate flexibility to mitigate one-sided downward pressure and avoid excessive binding to the US dollar [5].