拆解《天才法案》：谁将分食2万亿美元稳定币蛋糕？

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" marks the establishment of a clear legal framework for stablecoins in the U.S., ending their previous ambiguous legal status and reshaping the industry landscape [1][4][26] Group 1: Definition and Regulatory Framework - The "Genius Act" defines compliant stablecoins as "payment stablecoins," emphasizing their role as payment or settlement tools rather than investment products [4][5] - This definition excludes stablecoins from being classified as legal tender, bank deposits, financial securities, or commodities, thus simplifying the regulatory path for issuers [4][5] - The act signals that compliant stablecoins will be recognized as legitimate financial payment tools, moving away from being seen as risk assets [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Participants - The act creates a new power structure where traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, will dominate the issuance of stablecoins [9][10] - Only "insured depository institutions" and "regulated non-bank entities" can issue stablecoins, favoring established banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America [9][10] - Non-financial giants like Amazon and Meta face significant barriers to entering the stablecoin market, as the act restricts issuance to companies primarily engaged in financial services [12][24] Group 3: Compliance and Cost Implications - The act imposes strict compliance requirements, including a 1:1 reserve mechanism and monthly audits, significantly increasing operational costs for stablecoin issuers [17][18] - The previous practices of leveraging reserves for additional returns will be curtailed, as only high-liquid assets like cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities can be used [17][18] - Smaller firms may struggle to meet the new compliance standards, leading to a market dominated by larger institutions [13][18] Group 4: Opportunities for Web3 Infrastructure - The new regulatory environment presents significant opportunities for Web3 infrastructure providers, as banks seek to develop their own stablecoins [19][26] - Companies like Alchemy and Fireblocks are positioned to offer essential services to banks, potentially leading to a booming market for Web3 infrastructure, projected to reach $55 billion by 2033 [19][26] Group 5: Future of Existing Stablecoins - Tether's USDT faces compliance challenges under the new act, as it must secure regulatory approval to continue operating in the U.S. market [22][23] - The act mandates that stablecoin issuers must back their tokens with cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which may be difficult for Tether to achieve given its current asset composition [23][24] - Algorithmic stablecoins are temporarily excluded from the regulatory framework, with further research required to assess their risks and potential uses [24][25]