锡价突破27万元/吨 AI浪潮下行业有望维持高景气度

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates a continuous increase in domestic tin ingot prices, with prices reaching 270,000 CNY/ton in late July. The price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 CNY/ton and 280,000 CNY/ton in the coming months due to supply constraints and low inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The tight supply of tin ore remains unresolved, providing a bottom support for tin prices. Although there is an expectation of some easing in global tin ore supply in the second half of the year, the new supply entering the Chinese market is expected to be limited [1][2]. - Global tin ore grades are declining, leading to limited marginal supply increases and rising cost levels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The main demand for tin metal comes from solder materials, primarily used in the electronics industry, including consumer electronics, communication, computers, and automotive electronics. The global semiconductor sales are projected to recover significantly starting November 2023, with a forecasted sales figure of 167.7 billion USD in Q1 2025, representing an 18.8% year-on-year growth [1]. - The demand for solder materials is expected to maintain positive growth, driven by the increasing penetration and intelligence rates in the domestic automotive sector. The overall consumption of tin metal is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter, providing upward price potential [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of artificial intelligence technology is expected to enhance the demand for solder materials, particularly in the AI PC market, which is projected to reach 150 million units by 2025. The higher integration and packaging density of AI PC motherboards will likely increase the tin solder demand compared to regular computers [2].