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三重机遇驱动 内燃机行业“十五五”谋定价值跃升

Core Insights - The internal combustion engine (ICE) industry in China is undergoing a historic transition from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement" amid the backdrop of the "dual carbon" strategy, the rise of new productive forces, and the global restructuring of industrial chains [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial guide for the ICE industry, emphasizing low-carbon and zero-carbon development paths while promoting technological innovation and industrial collaboration [2][4] Policy and Technological Breakthroughs - The ICE industry is expected to encounter three major opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan," driven by national strategic design and the industry's own innovative vitality [2][4] - National policies, such as the "Hydrogen Energy Industry Standard System Construction Guide (2023 Edition)" and the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024 Edition)," provide strong support for the low-carbon transition of the ICE industry [4] Strategic Needs and Industry Advantages - The demand for major technological equipment is critical for national economic security and industrial upgrading, necessitating a focus on advanced equipment in power, rail transport, and aerospace [3] - The ICE industry has established itself as a cornerstone of China's manufacturing sector, with a complete domestic supply chain and growing research and testing capabilities [4][10] Market Demand and Innovation - The core development trend for the next generation of ICEs is "high efficiency, low carbon, and near-zero pollutant emissions," driven by both policy mandates and market demand [5][6] - The industry is focusing on multi-dimensional technological innovations, including the development of alternative fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen, and methanol [5][11] Challenges and Strategic Focus - The ICE industry faces multiple challenges, including the need to meet stringent emission regulations and enhance the reliability of alternative fuel engines [8][9] - A systematic response plan is required, focusing on nine key areas such as strengthening foundational research, consolidating traditional industry advantages, and enhancing international competitiveness [9][12] Achievements and Future Directions - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China has solidified its position as the world's largest manufacturer of ICEs, with significant technological advancements and a stable sales volume between 76 million to 82.6 million units from 2021 to 2024 [10][11] - The industry has made notable progress in developing new generation diesel engines and alternative fuel applications, indicating a promising future in the context of the "dual carbon" era [11][12]