经观头条｜“长钱”入市

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has finally broken through the 3600-point mark after nine months, closing at 3600 points for the first time since January 2022, with a trading volume of 1.84 trillion yuan on July 24 [3][6][22] - The index has risen from 3040 points to 3600 points over the past three months, representing a cumulative increase of over 18% [3][22] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some feeling optimistic about a bull market while others remain cautious, leading to a dichotomy of emotions in the market [4][6] - Institutional investors have noted that continuous capital inflow has supported the market's upward trend in recent months [8] Capital Inflows - Various factors contributing to capital inflows include increased retail investment, returning overseas capital, and improvements in the economic fundamentals [9] - The central government has significantly increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with over 190 billion yuan added by the Central Huijin Investment in the first half of 2025 [12] Sector Performance - The banking sector has seen a remarkable increase, with the bank index rising by 54.7% since the "9·24" market rally, driven by long-term capital reassessment and favorable policies [10][11] - The A-share market has experienced rapid sector rotation, with high-dividend stocks, technology stocks, and new concepts like "anti-involution" gaining traction [5][18] Policy Impact - Government policies have played a crucial role in supporting market stability and growth, with a focus on fostering long-term capital and enhancing market monitoring [9][23] - The recent launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost GDP and market sentiment [18] Future Outlook - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with discussions around whether the 3600-point level represents a new starting point or a potential risk zone [22][24] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics are influenced by a combination of policy support, structural opportunities, and a shift towards institutional investment, indicating a potential "slow bull" market [23][24]