突发！俄罗斯央行：降息200个基点！

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 18.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, driven by faster-than-expected declines in inflation pressure and a slowdown in domestic demand [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank aims to maintain tight monetary conditions to bring inflation back to target levels by 2026, with an average key interest rate expected to be between 18.8% and 19.6% for this year, and between 12.0% and 13.0% by 2026 [3]. - The bank forecasts this year's inflation rate to drop to 6.0%—7.0%, with a target of 4.0% by 2026 [3]. Economic Indicators - Inflation indicators in Russia have shown a significant decrease, with the inflation rate dropping from 8.2% in Q1 2025 to 4.8% in Q2, and core inflation decreasing from 8.8% to 4.5% [3]. - The Central Bank notes that the impact of tight monetary conditions on demand is becoming more evident, with demand expansion slowing and aligning more closely with the economy's production capacity [3]. Labor Market - The labor market has shown signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of companies reporting employee shortages, although wage growth remains above productivity growth [4]. - The unemployment rate is at historical lows, but labor shortages pose a potential inflation risk if domestic demand accelerates without a corresponding increase in productivity [4]. Credit Market - Credit expansion is slower compared to the previous two years, with consumer loans contracting while mortgage and corporate loans show moderate growth [4]. - The Central Bank assesses that credit activity is influenced more by moderate borrowing demand rather than constraints related to bank capital adequacy or macroprudential requirements [4]. Inflation Risks - The Central Bank acknowledges that inflation risks persist, alongside potential deflation risks, particularly if credit and demand cooling occurs faster than anticipated [5]. - Fiscal policy remains a crucial factor in the Central Bank's projections, with the assumption that the government will maintain its current fiscal policy through 2025 [5].