Prediction: 1 EV Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Lucid 1 Year From Now

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation is positioned to have a more promising future compared to Lucid Motors, which has struggled to meet its production and delivery targets since going public [1][6]. Company Performance - Lucid initially aimed to deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2022, 49,000 in 2023, and 90,000 in 2024, but actual deliveries were significantly lower at 4,369 in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024 [2][4]. - Lucid's revenue grew from $608 million in 2022 to $808 million in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 15%, while its net loss increased from $2.56 billion to $3.06 billion [5]. - Lucid's stock has declined nearly 90% since its first post-merger trade, yet it maintains a market cap of $8.6 billion, which is 11 times last year's sales [5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Archer Aviation's Midnight eVTOL aircraft offers advantages such as carrying a pilot and four passengers, traveling up to 100 miles, and reaching speeds of 150 miles per hour, making it suitable for urban air taxi services [8]. - Archer has a backlog of approximately $6 billion, with significant orders from major companies and organizations, including United Airlines and the U.S. Air Force [9]. - Archer plans to commence air taxi flights in Abu Dhabi and is awaiting FAA approval for U.S. operations, with production goals of 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 in 2026, 252 in 2027, and 650 in 2028 [10]. - Analysts project Archer's revenue to grow from $13 million in 2025 to $437 million in 2027, supported by a growing backlog and an expanding eVTOL market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35.3% from 2024 to 2030 [11]. Competitive Landscape - Archer benefits from an early mover advantage in the eVTOL market, while Lucid entered the saturated EV market later and has seen a decline in its reservation backlog [12]. - Archer's market cap is currently $7.5 billion, trading at 17 times its projected sales for 2027, while Lucid trades at less than two times its estimated sales for the same year [13]. - If Archer successfully launches its commercial air taxi services and gains FAA approval, it could achieve a market cap of $13.1 billion, surpassing Lucid's current valuation [14][15].