半年盘点｜上半年欧洲补库需求拉动全球LNG贸易增长，下半年市场如何变化

Core Viewpoint - The global LNG prices remain high, suppressing market trading activity, despite an increase in LNG trade volume in the first half of the year due to cold winter conditions in Europe [1][4]. Supply and Demand Overview - In the first half of the year, global LNG trade volume reached 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%, but this growth rate is among the lowest in the past decade [1]. - The supply side saw faster LNG liquefaction capacity additions, with a notable increase in the share of U.S. supplies, leading to a more concentrated market among top suppliers [2][5]. - Major LNG suppliers, including the U.S., Australia, and Qatar, have increased their market share by 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with the U.S. share rising by 3.7 percentage points [2]. Price Trends - The average price of European TTF increased by 40% year-on-year to $13.14 per million British thermal units, while Asian spot prices rose by approximately 28% [4]. - High prices have dampened the purchasing enthusiasm in traditional importing regions like Japan and South Korea, with China reducing spot purchases due to price sensitivity [4]. Regional Demand Dynamics - The demand from Asia and Europe shows a long-term relationship of substitution, with the concentration of LNG demand from Japan, South Korea, and China decreasing by over 5 percentage points year-on-year, while Europe's share increased by more than 4 percentage points [4]. - European LNG imports remained high during the off-season due to significant replenishment needs, with imports close to 10 million tons in April and May [4]. Future Outlook - The global LNG market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the second half of the year, influenced by various factors including weather and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. - New LNG projects, such as LNG Canada and Corpus Christi Stage 3, are expected to contribute limited additional supply in the near term, with commercial operations anticipated later in the year [5].