三大交易所齐出手“降温”，工业品期货投机能否退潮？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures, driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations, has faced a significant downturn due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing speculation and managing risk in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On July 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) imposed trading limits on coking coal futures, restricting non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 contracts for the JM2509 contract and 2000 contracts for other coking coal futures starting July 29 [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) also announced that from July 28, non-futures company members or clients would be limited to a maximum of 3000 contracts for the LC2509 lithium carbonate futures [2]. - Various exchanges have issued risk warnings and implemented measures such as increasing margin requirements and tightening trading limits across multiple commodities, including coking coal, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the regulatory measures, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping 7.76% to 1140.5 yuan/ton, while the holding volume for the restricted JM2509 contract decreased by 10.2 thousand contracts to 417 thousand contracts [1][3]. - Despite a continued rise in lithium carbonate futures, the main contract saw a near 6% drop during trading, with total trading volume decreasing by 56.7 thousand contracts to 1.203 million contracts [3][4]. - The GFEX has also limited the daily opening positions for polysilicon and industrial silicon futures, indicating a broader trend of tightening controls across various commodities [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Speculation - The "anti-involution" theme has led to a rotation of speculative funds, with some short-term capital quickly shifting to ferroalloys, as evidenced by significant price increases in silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts on July 25 [5]. - The overall market sentiment remains influenced by policy interventions, with industrial commodity futures experiencing substantial price fluctuations driven by speculative trading and regulatory responses [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while regulatory measures may temporarily suppress price volatility for coking coal and lithium carbonate, ongoing supply disruptions or improved demand expectations could lead prices to return to an upward trajectory [8].