稳定币快速发展的生机与隐患

Core Viewpoint - The recent passage of two significant bills in the U.S. and Hong Kong has granted legal status to stablecoins, eliminating policy uncertainty and promoting their development, which is expected to invigorate the payment industry, digital asset sector, and the global financial system [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - Both bills clarify the positioning of stablecoins and regulate their activities, requiring a 1:1 backing with reserve assets limited to fiat or other low-risk, high-liquidity assets [2] - Interest payments on stablecoins are prohibited, reinforcing their payment attributes and distinguishing them from traditional investment products [2] - Issuers face stricter legal constraints, with only licensed entities allowed to operate stablecoin businesses in Hong Kong [2] - Regular disclosure of reserve asset reports and compliance with anti-money laundering regulations are mandated to enhance market transparency and protect investor rights [2] Impact on Payment Systems - Stablecoins are expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the global payment system, serving as an ideal payment tool for various transactions, especially cross-border and cryptocurrency transactions [3] - A report predicts that by 2030, the global supply of stablecoins could reach $3.7 trillion, with market capitalization growing from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars, positioning stablecoins at the core of cross-border payments and digital asset transactions [3] Innovation in Digital Assets - Compliant stablecoins connect the real and virtual worlds, facilitating the flow of traditional capital into the Web3 space and enabling the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) [4] - The RWA market is currently valued at $268.16 billion, with over 90% of this value attributed to stablecoins, indicating a significant role in attracting investors to the digital asset sector [4] Risks Associated with Stablecoins - The rapid development of stablecoins poses liquidity risks, as their stability relies heavily on the quality of reserve assets, which could lead to large-scale redemption crises if confidence wanes [5] - Technical risks are inherent due to the blockchain technology underpinning stablecoins, with historical incidents of hacks and system failures highlighting vulnerabilities [6] - Regulatory costs may rise significantly due to the lack of a unified global framework, creating opportunities for regulatory arbitrage and compliance challenges [7] - The widespread use of stablecoins could threaten the dominance of traditional banking by reducing commercial deposits and altering the payment landscape [7] Strategic Recommendations for China - China should leverage Hong Kong as a pilot for stablecoin development, attracting global compliant projects to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi [9] - A robust risk management framework and legal regulations are essential to control the circulation of stablecoins domestically while ensuring sustainable development [9] - Structural reforms are necessary to restore global confidence in China's growth and to adapt to the evolving digital landscape, ultimately supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [9]