聚焦创新药投资 优化组合风险收益比

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the unique perspective of Zheng Ning, a fund manager at Zhongyin Fund, on value investing in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting his focus on constructing a high-risk-reward investment portfolio based on implied return rates under neutral free cash flow assumptions [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Zheng believes that the essence of stock investment lies in the discounting of future free cash flows, advocating for a long-term view when assessing assets [2]. - He has shifted from seeking certainty in investments to pricing uncertainty, focusing on the implied cash flow probability distribution [2]. - The core of his pricing strategy is based on implied return rates under neutral free cash flow assumptions, where assets with low implied return rates may not warrant allocation, while those with favorable pricing could present high-odds opportunities [2]. Investment Strategy - Zheng employs a systematic approach to portfolio construction, which includes assessing stock positions based on fundamental, valuation, liquidity, and policy factors [3]. - He adjusts stock positions based on market conditions, reducing exposure in strong markets and increasing it in weak markets [3]. - The strategy also involves sector allocation and stock selection, prioritizing industries with improving fundamentals and favorable valuations [3]. Market Outlook - Zheng is optimistic about the ongoing opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, attributing the recent uptrend to fundamental drivers such as overseas business development, profit realization, and research advancements [4]. - He notes that even after recent price increases, some leading Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceutical companies remain undervalued with attractive implied return rates [4]. - The article suggests that the best time to invest in Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals may be in the coming years, particularly in traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovative drug development [5]. Performance and Future Considerations - Since taking over public fund products, Zheng has experienced both successes and setbacks, with a notable focus on innovative pharmaceutical stocks [3][5]. - The article indicates that the next challenge for Zheng's portfolio will be to time the exit from innovative pharmaceutical stocks effectively, similar to his previous successful entry strategy [5]. - Zheng estimates that fundamental-driven market trends in this sector may last for two to three years, with significant growth potential remaining for leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [5].