外汇市场供求平衡韧性足

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market is operating smoothly with a balanced supply and demand, stable foreign exchange reserves, and a resilient foreign trade environment, despite complex global conditions [1][5]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has shown increased two-way volatility and resilience, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1,332 basis points and the offshore RMB by 1,796 basis points against the USD in the first half of the year [2][3]. - The USD index has decreased by 10.79% in the same period, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. - Market analysts expect the RMB to maintain a stable range between 7.1 and 7.3 against the USD in the second half of the year, with limited potential for the RMB to break below 7 [4]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of $322 billion and a continuous growth for six months [5][6]. - The increase in reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [5]. Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) as of June, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces [6]. - The gold reserves represent 7.32% of the total foreign exchange reserves, which is below the global average of around 15% [6]. Cross-Border Investment Reforms - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has proposed reforms to facilitate cross-border investment and financing, aiming to optimize the business environment and support high-quality economic development [7]. - These reforms include nine specific policies to enhance foreign exchange management and promote stable foreign investment [7]. Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, supported by a recovering economy, balanced international payments, and enhanced market resilience [8]. - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies and the promotion of domestic demand are anticipated to further stabilize the RMB exchange rate [8].