碳酸锂期货吨价重回8万元上方 脱离“盈亏平衡线”

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a supply contraction in "white oil" is influencing the market, leading to a significant rebound in lithium carbonate futures prices, which have surpassed 80,000 yuan/ton, moving away from the industry consensus on the breakeven line [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by strong market expectations of reduced supply [1] - Analysts suggest that if the anticipated supply reduction materializes, the current strong demand and weak supply dynamic for lithium carbonate will likely change [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Downstream demand has shown unexpected strength, contrary to initial expectations of a demand vacuum from July to August [1] - In July, downstream demand decreased by 6% to 7% month-on-month; however, actual tracking indicates an increase in production across the industry, with notable performance in commercial vehicles, heavy trucks, and energy storage sectors [1] - Overall, July's battery cell production exhibited a 5% month-on-month growth [1]