美联储利率决议来袭！市场紧盯“鹰鸽交锋”，秋季降息信号成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, with increasing market speculation about potential rate cuts in the fall due to ongoing debates among officials and economic data releases [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, while some officials advocate for maintaining current rates to support a slowing labor market [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve may lead to a historic situation where two members vote against the decision, which has not occurred since 1993 [2][4]. - The upcoming interest rate decision coincides with the release of key economic data, including the monthly employment report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth due to trade policy uncertainties [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent inflation reports indicate that while some prices have risen due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, suggesting limited widespread price pressure [4][5]. - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may resume a rate-cutting cycle in October, with a series of 25 basis point cuts expected by mid-2026 [4][5]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming employment reports and other economic data to gauge the potential for interest rate adjustments in September [5][6]. Group 3: Jerome Powell's Position - Jerome Powell is likely to face questions regarding tariffs and inflation during the press conference, but he may emphasize the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability given that inflation is still above the 2% target [5][6]. - Powell's responses are anticipated to focus on economic factors rather than political pressures, as he aims to reaffirm the Fed's commitment to its mandated responsibilities [6].