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缅甸矿扰动或进一步推涨稀土价格,钼价新高可期 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-07-28 00:53

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased to 513,200 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 7.23% [1][5] - LME copper price rose by 0.02% to 9,796.00 USD/ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 1.07% to 79,300 CNY/ton [2] - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.27% to 2,631.00 USD/ton, while Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.22% to 20,800 CNY/ton [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply expectations for strategic resources are strengthening, with a potential recovery in exports [1][5] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 510,000 tons, indicating a supply surplus [3] - The operating rate of brass rod enterprises decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 49.32%, primarily due to weak demand [2] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Impact - The implementation of new management regulations is expected to benefit leading state-owned enterprises, potentially leading to performance and valuation increases in the sector [1][5] - The introduction of mandatory 3C certification for flame-retardant wires and cables starting July 1 may boost demand for antimony [5] Group 4: Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of lithium carbonate increased by 7.64% to 70,200 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 4.18% to 65,200 CNY/ton [6] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to reduced domestic smelting capacity and improved export expectations [5] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise as supply constraints emerge from a recent mining accident [6]