智通财经网·2025-07-28 01:52Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Swire Properties (01972) to achieve EPS of HKD 1.07 and HKD 1.25 for 2025-26, with a CAGR of 5.9% [1] - The company is currently trading at a 5.6% dividend yield for 2025 and a 39% NAV discount, with a target price of HKD 23.8, implying a 16% upside potential [1] Group 1: Asset Quality and Returns - Swire Properties holds high-quality assets in Hong Kong and mainland China, with long-term stable returns [2] - The core asset portfolio includes large mixed-use communities in Hong Kong and landmark commercial complexes in mainland China, contributing 36% and 35% to rental income respectively in 2024 [2] - The cost return rate of its holding properties is expected to increase from 4.0% in 2011 to 5.3% by 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Plans and Profit Growth - The "HKD 100 billion investment plan" aims to drive steady growth in core rental profits, with 50% allocated to mainland properties [3] - By the end of 2024, HKD 46 billion of the mainland investment has been allocated, with an expected 82% increase in floor area by project completion [3] - Although rental profits may remain flat or slightly decline in 2025-26 due to the Hong Kong office market, a CAGR of 8% in core rental profits is anticipated from 2027-29, with mainland properties potentially reaching over 15% [3] Group 3: Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The company aims for annual dividend growth in the mid-single digits supported by planned investment projects [4] - Capital expenditures are projected at HKD 84 billion, HKD 70 billion, and HKD 42 billion for 2025-27 [4] - The company has a resilient balance sheet with a net debt ratio of 15.7% in 2024, and has generated over HKD 50 billion from asset disposals from 2017-24 [4]