铜物质流跟踪报告：2025H1铜需求透支几何

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in domestic copper demand, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4% and a monthly growth of 18% in June, primarily due to a low base in June 2024 [1][4] - The analysis highlights concerns regarding the sustainability of demand in the second half of 2025, as there are fears of a decline in demand following a strong export push in the first half [2][4] Domestic Demand Analysis - Domestic copper demand shows clear seasonal characteristics, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 12% in the first half of the year and a monthly growth of 21% in June due to a low base effect [4] - The actual domestic copper demand has a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4%, with a notable monthly increase of 18% in June, reflecting the impact of high copper prices in the previous year [4][5] - The seasonal demand is expected to remain strong in September and October 2025, indicating a continued presence of peak demand characteristics [5][6] International Demand Analysis - U.S. copper demand is supported by a significant increase in imports, particularly in electrical equipment, with a year-on-year growth of 33% in the first five months and a monthly growth of 62% in May [7][8] - The increase in U.S. apparent demand is attributed to the 232 tariffs, which have led to higher copper imports, while actual consumption also includes copper from imported products [8] - The overall demand in the U.S. is characterized by strong growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18% in actual demand for the first five months [8] Investment Outlook - The analysis suggests that the market may have overestimated the inventory demand in the U.S. while underestimating the growth in industrial demand, leading to an optimistic outlook for the copper sector [9]