“反内卷”有望推动行业景气好转

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the chemical industry, leading to a recovery in market sentiment and price increases [2][3] - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 highlighted the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is expected to enhance the overall industry environment [2] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 6.41% in June, with sub-sectors like lithium battery chemicals, inorganic salts, and membrane materials showing strong performance [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to optimize production capacity structures and accelerate technological upgrades within the chemical industry [2][3] - The policy will lead to the gradual exit of small and backward enterprises, particularly in industries like dyes and titanium dioxide, thereby increasing market concentration and enhancing pricing power for industry leaders [2] - The shift from price competition to product differentiation is anticipated as companies will be encouraged to invest more in technological innovation rather than competing solely on price [2][3] Group 3 - The new round of "anti-involution" regulation not only targets traditional industries but also emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, indicating a long-term premium space for green chemicals [3] - The policy aims to prevent overcapacity in high-end products by discouraging excessive competition in popular sectors such as lithium materials [3] - The overall goal of the "anti-involution" initiative is to enhance export competitiveness and drive up export prices, despite potential short-term volatility for small enterprises undergoing transformation [3]