二价不灵，九价宫颈癌疫苗能否拯救万泰生物？

Core Viewpoint - Wantaibio (603392.SH) is facing its first loss since its listing, with a projected net profit loss of between 130 million to 160 million yuan for the first half of 2025, following a significant decline in performance since 2022 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2022, Wantaibio achieved a peak revenue of 11.185 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.736 billion yuan, primarily driven by its vaccine products [4]. - The company's revenue dropped by 50.73% in 2023, with a net profit decline of 73.65%, and continued to decrease in 2024, with revenues of 5.511 billion yuan and 2.245 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.248 billion yuan and 106 million yuan respectively [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, Wantaibio reported a loss of 52.7769 million yuan, indicating a significant downturn in financial health [4]. Product Dependency and Market Challenges - The decline in Wantaibio's performance is attributed to its heavy reliance on a single product, the bivalent HPV vaccine, which has seen a drop in sales following the introduction of competing products from Merck [3][6]. - The company increased its production and inventory of the bivalent vaccine in 2022, but faced a 41.94% drop in sales volume in 2023, while inventory levels rose by 91.62% [8]. New Product Launch - Wantaibio has launched a new nine-valent HPV vaccine, "Xinkening 9," priced at 499 yuan per dose, significantly lower than Merck's offering at 1320 yuan [9]. - Despite the competitive pricing, the late entry into the market poses challenges, as Merck's nine-valent vaccine has already established a foothold, and other domestic competitors are also advancing in this space [9][10].