春节后国内油价或将首次下调

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive weeks, leading to a likely decrease in domestic refined oil prices after the Spring Festival [2][4]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have dropped due to market panic, with light crude oil futures closing at $51.56 per barrel, down 4.8%, and Brent crude at $58.16 per barrel, down approximately 4% [2]. - The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about China's oil demand, impacting global speculative trading and contributing to the decline in oil prices [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the panic surrounding the pandemic subsides, oil prices may experience a recovery phase [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustments - As of February 3, the average price of reference crude oil was $60.74 per barrel, with a change rate of -6.92%, indicating a potential decrease of 360 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [4]. - This would mark the first decrease in domestic refined oil prices in 2020, following a previous adjustment on January 14, where no changes were made [4]. - The next adjustment window for refined oil prices will open on February 18, following the "ten working days adjustment" principle [6]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Current demand for gasoline and diesel in the domestic market is weak, with significant reductions in personal vehicle usage and limited logistics support for diesel due to the holiday period [5]. - Despite some signs of increased diesel transactions, overall refined oil consumption remains pessimistic, with social inventories on the rise [5]. - The reduction in refinery output may limit further declines in gasoline and diesel prices [5].