澳洲联储降息预期悬而未决

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at 0.6573 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.13%, as investors await key economic data including the second quarter CPI and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The preliminary PMI for July in Australia has risen, indicating accelerated economic activity across various sectors, which has improved the macroeconomic outlook [1] - The current annual CPI for June stands at 2.1%, nearing the lower limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) inflation target range of 2%-3%. A further slowdown in inflation could increase pressure on the RBA to ease monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the RBA will cut interest rates in mid-August and again in November, although RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has downplayed the significance of the June unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, suggesting a more hawkish stance than the market expects [1] - The Australian dollar is sensitive to trade relations, particularly with China, and upcoming manufacturing PMI data from China could impact demand for Australian raw materials, thereby influencing the AUD [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD trading range is between 0.6545 and 0.6585, with support levels at 0.6505-0.6455 and resistance around 0.66875. A potential technical correction may occur if the AUD touches the upper Bollinger Band [2]