三大人民币汇率指数上周均下跌，CFETS按周跌0.43

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of July 25, with the CFETS RMB index at 95.71, down 0.43% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 101.31, down 0.49%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 90.55, down 0.35% [1][2]. Market Trends - Market risk appetite strengthened significantly last week, leading to a 0.8% decline in the US dollar, which closed at 97.67. Non-USD currencies strengthened across the board, with the euro rising approximately 1% due to optimistic sentiments from US-EU negotiations and the European Central Bank's hawkish stance. The Japanese yen also gained 0.77% due to positive trade negotiation outcomes [5]. - Both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates strengthened, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.1680 against the USD, up 86 points (0.12%) for the week, and the offshore RMB at 7.1679, up 134 points (0.18%) [5]. RMB Appreciation - Since April 14, the RMB has experienced a concentrated appreciation, moving from a midpoint exchange rate of 7.21 to 7.14 against the USD, an appreciation of nearly 1%. This appreciation occurred despite two rounds of dollar index rebounds during the same period [5]. - In the first seven months of 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB against the USD only saw slight depreciation in April, with appreciation trends in other months, resulting in a year-to-date increase of 2% for both [5]. Economic Indicators - The recent macroeconomic reports indicate that the domestic economy has shown stable and strong performance in the first half of the year, providing significant support for the RMB exchange rate. This is a key reason for the RMB's stronger performance amid the dollar's decline [6]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported a continuous recovery in net foreign exchange settlement, indicating improved supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, which may support the RMB exchange rate [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current RMB appreciation may be driven by changes in risk premiums, with future trends dependent on the US-China trade situation, counter-cyclical policies, and supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. - If the Federal Reserve significantly lowers interest rates next year, the potential demand for foreign exchange settlement could further support RMB appreciation [7].