2061年到期金边债暴跌成深坑 押注英国衰退的宗教式执念试图推动“涅槃反弹”

Core Insights - The long-dated UK government bond maturing in 2061 has become a risky bet for speculators, despite its previous popularity among investors in London's financial district [1][2] - The bond's price has plummeted over 50% since 2022, dropping from approximately £97 to around £25, raising concerns about the sustainability of such investments [1][5] - The ongoing sell-off of long-term UK bonds is driven by increasing worries about the UK government's fiscal outlook, highlighting the potential dangers of "buying the dip" strategies in this market [1][8] Group 1: Investment Trends - Some investors continue to hold onto the 2061 bond, hoping for a rebound driven by an economic recession, which has led to its classification as a highly sought-after bond in the market [2][4] - The bond is compared to high-leverage ETFs in the stock market, attracting both retail and institutional traders looking for significant returns [6][7] - Despite its steep decline, the bond remains a popular trading instrument, with high trading volumes reported on platforms like Hargreaves Lansdown [5][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bond's low coupon rate of 0.5% and tax advantages, such as exemption from capital gains tax, make it appealing for speculative trading [7][10] - If a recession occurs and inflation decreases, the bond's price could theoretically surge, making it an attractive option for traders betting on economic downturns [8][10] - However, the enthusiasm for the bond has waned this year, as economic indicators do not suggest an imminent recession, leading some investors to consider other bonds with similar characteristics [8][10]