一周流动性观察 | 1.6万亿元逆回购将到期 跨月资金面有望修复

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment despite fluctuations in the money market, with significant net injections and ongoing reverse repo operations to support market stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On July 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 495.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1]. - In the week of July 21-25, the PBOC achieved a total net injection of 129.5 billion yuan in the open market, with 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing [1][2]. - The PBOC's operations in July included a total net injection of 300 billion yuan through medium-term lending facilities (MLF), indicating a continued focus on liquidity support [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The money market experienced volatility, with overnight rates fluctuating around 1.40% at the beginning of the week, rising to over 1.65% mid-week, and then easing back to 1.55% and 1.52% by July 25 [2]. - The 7-day funding rates remained stable below 1.50% initially but showed an upward trend, reaching 1.69% and 1.65% for R007 and DR007, respectively [2][3]. - The upcoming week (July 28-August 1) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 1,656.3 billion yuan, with significant government debt repayments expected [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to August, liquidity is expected to remain loose, although mid-month disturbances may occur due to local government debt financing and the PBOC's management of liquidity during non-tax periods [4]. - The PBOC is anticipated to maintain a certain level of liquidity injection, especially if bond market rates continue to rise, which could prompt the central bank to support interbank market liquidity [4]. - The overall expectation is for the 7-day funding rate to stabilize around 10-15 basis points above the reverse repo rate, with reduced volatility in the cross-month funding market [4].