ETFs in Focus as S&P 500 Hits Record Highs in a V-Shaped Recovery

Market Performance - The S&P 500 has achieved five consecutive record closes, resulting in a total rally of 28% since its low on April 8, marking the second-fastest recovery from a 19%+ drawdown in the last 75 years [1] - The index's recovery has formed a textbook V-shape in the 2025 chart [1] Earnings Expectations - A synchronized V-shaped recovery in earnings expectations is observed, with a significant increase in the ratio of companies raising forecasts compared to those lowering them, aligning with the rise in the S&P 500 [2] - The Q2 earnings season shows a positive trend, with a higher-than-average proportion of companies beating consensus estimates, supported by a stabilizing macroeconomic backdrop [3] Earnings Growth - For the 117 S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 results, total earnings increased by 8.3% year-over-year, with revenues up by 5.3%, and 87.2% of these companies beat EPS estimates while 80.3% exceeded revenue estimates [4] - The percentage of companies beating EPS and revenue estimates is above historical averages, with Q2 EPS beats at 87.2% compared to a 20-quarter average of 81.9% and revenue beats at 80.3% versus 70% [5] Long-Term Outlook - Since July, Q3 earnings estimates have risen for half of the 16 Zacks sectors, including Finance, Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Autos, and Energy, with expectations for earnings growth in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 increasing [6] - Analysts project a 13.9% growth in earnings for 2026, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 13.8% [6] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 is currently trading at 22.4 times next year's earnings, above its five-year average of 19.9X and ten-year average of 18.4X, yet corporate profitability remains strong, mitigating concerns over high valuations [8] Investment Options - Investors may consider tracking S&P 500-based ETFs such as Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) [9] - For growth exposure, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) is recommended, while SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV) caters to value investors [10]