Bear of the Day: Dow (DOW)

Core Insights - Dow Inc. is facing significant challenges due to uncertainty around tariffs and difficult industry conditions, leading to a 50% cut in its quarterly dividend [1][4][8] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Dow reported a loss of $0.42 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus by $0.31, which represents a miss of 282% [2][8] - Net sales decreased by 7% year-over-year to $10.1 billion, with declines across all operating segments, and a sequential decline of 3% [2][3] - Volumes fell by 1%, with gains in the US and Canada offset by declines in India, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe [3] - Cash from operating activities was negative $470 million, down $1.3 billion year-over-year due to lower earnings from margin compression [3] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, a reduction of 50% in response to the prolonged industry downturn, which would yield 5.5% annually if maintained [4][5] - This marks the 456th consecutive dividend payment since 1912, showcasing a long-standing commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have become increasingly bearish on Dow's prospects for 2025 and 2026, with earnings estimates cut significantly [6] - The Zacks Consensus for 2025 earnings has been revised down to $0.24 from $0.38, indicating an 86% decline compared to the previous year's earnings of $1.71 [6] Stock Performance - Dow's shares have reached 1-year and 5-year lows, reflecting ongoing investor concerns amid the challenging macroeconomic environment [8][10] - The stock is not considered cheap, trading at a forward P/E of 107 and a PEG ratio of 11.3, indicating a lack of value based on traditional metrics [12]