每经热评︱反内卷功在长远 期货市场短炒不可取

Group 1 - The commodity futures market experienced a significant decline on July 28, with major contracts such as coking coal, glass, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, and soda ash either closing at limit down prices or continuously falling during the session [1] - From June 24 to July 25, various commodities saw substantial price increases, with hot-rolled coil and rebar rising over 12%, iron ore, alumina, and manganese silicon around 15%, soda ash and coke approximately 25%, and glass, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon exceeding 30%. Notably, polysilicon and coking coal surged over 50% [1] - The recent price surge was partly due to technical factors, as some commodities had been in a long-term downtrend and were accumulating rebound momentum. For instance, lithium carbonate fell from a high of 273,700 yuan/ton to below 60,000 yuan/ton, a cumulative drop of over 78% [2] Group 2 - The market's expectation shift is crucial for a reversal in trends, with the narrative of addressing "involution" competition being a key factor. Industries like photovoltaics and coal have already taken substantial actions against involution, which could lead to a strong rebound if a consensus is reached [2] - The supply-demand dynamics of bulk commodities are unlikely to change significantly in the short term without sudden supply shocks, with short-term volatility driven more by irrational factors [2] - Addressing "involution" competition is a long-term challenge, requiring systematic planning and sustained efforts across various industries. For example, in the photovoltaic sector, merely controlling supply is insufficient to resolve the industry's overall loss situation [3] Group 3 - The futures market's primary function is price discovery, and short-term volatility can hinder this function. For instance, a sudden price surge may lead companies to mistakenly believe the market is improving, prompting them to increase production, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances if prices subsequently drop [3] - The development of the futures market relies on actual commercial activities, and greater participation from real enterprises can help futures prices better reflect supply and demand relationships, providing effective price references and risk management tools for production [3]