贸易骤降、库存积压、消费疲软，美国经济面临系统性风险

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in trade volume, weak consumer spending, inventory surplus, and monetary policy uncertainty, which may lead to deflationary downturns or even recession [1][13]. Trade Volume Decline - In May 2025, U.S. container imports fell to 2,177,453 TEU, a 9.7% decrease from April and a 7.2% decline year-over-year [2]. - Industry analyst John Macao predicts a potential 25% reduction in U.S. container shipping volume, equating to a $510 billion decrease in annual business activity [2]. - The decline in trade volume is attributed to global supply chain adjustments and policy uncertainties, with tariff instability prompting businesses to import early, leading to a "whipsaw effect" in trade data [2]. Port Activity and Inventory Management - The Port of Los Angeles experienced its busiest month in June 2025, with an 8% year-over-year increase in cargo volume, following significant declines in May [3]. - The fluctuations in port activity are driven by geopolitical and tariff policy changes rather than economic recovery, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities [3]. - Companies are utilizing Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) to manage inventory levels, but this strategy may transfer risks to banks and financial institutions, increasing systemic risk if demand remains weak [4]. Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has significantly weakened, with the Conference Board's index dropping to a near five-year low in April 2025 [5]. - Retail sales growth was only 0.68% annualized in the first half of 2025, with actual retail sales declining by 1.75% in the second quarter, indicating a recessionary trend [6]. - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data also reflect a similar downward trend, with negative growth observed in early 2025 [6]. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3% in June 2025, with a cumulative decline of 2.8% over six months, indicating a significant loss of economic momentum [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, reflecting concerns over inflation and growth [8]. - Market signals indicate a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield stable at 4.35% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.84% [8][9]. Global Trade Context - The decline in U.S. trade volume is part of a broader global economic slowdown, with the WTO revising its global goods trade growth forecast from 3% to -0.2% for 2025 [10]. - The tightening of global financial conditions and high external debt levels in developing countries create a "perfect storm," increasing the risk of debt crises [11]. Systemic Risks and Policy Uncertainty - The combination of inventory surplus and weak consumer demand poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, with estimates indicating the current inventory surplus is the largest since 2008 and 2020 [12]. - Frequent adjustments to U.S. tariff policies disrupt supply chains and erode business confidence, potentially leading to further declines in trade volume and consumer spending [13].