【财经分析】土耳其重启降息促循环 经济回稳仍存挑战

Group 1 - Turkey's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, marking the first rate cut since the monetary easing cycle was interrupted in March due to financial and political turmoil [2][3] - The annual inflation rate in Turkey decreased to 35% in June, significantly lower than the peak of approximately 75% in May of the previous year, indicating initial success of tightening policies [3][4] - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" with a stable outlook, citing improved policy continuity, credibility, and alleviation of external imbalances as key reasons for the upgrade [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in inflation, analysts suggest that this is largely due to base effects rather than structural improvements, with expectations that inflation will remain high at the end of the year [4] - The market remains cautious regarding the consistency of policies and actual improvements in economic fundamentals, with the central bank emphasizing that future rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on inflation outlook [5] - A recent survey of 34 economists predicts that the central bank's policy rate will further decrease to 41% by the end of September and to 36% by the end of the year, while the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 30% by year-end, exceeding the central bank's target [5]