传统寿险渐退潮，分红险接棒？瑞银解析中国保险行业新动向

Core Insights - The report from UBS highlights a significant shift in the Chinese insurance industry, particularly with the adjustment of the pricing interest rate benchmark, which may signal the end of the traditional whole life insurance era and present opportunities for participating insurance products [1][2]. Pricing Interest Rate Adjustment - The China Insurance Industry Association has lowered the pricing interest rate (PIR) benchmark by 14 basis points to 1.99%, which is 51 basis points lower than the current rate of 2.5% for traditional products [2]. - Major insurance companies have announced reductions in the pricing interest rates for traditional, participating, and universal products by 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively, resulting in rates of 2.0%, 1.75%, and 1.0% [2]. - The narrowing gap between the pricing interest rates of traditional and participating products indicates a regulatory focus on participating insurance contracts to mitigate interest margin loss risks [2]. Transition from Traditional to Participating Insurance - The reduction in the pricing interest rate may indicate the end of the golden era for traditional whole life insurance (IWLP), which, despite strong consumer demand, poses higher interest rate risks for insurance companies [3]. - Participating insurance products are expected to become more attractive in both the Hong Kong and mainland markets, with a pricing interest rate of 2.0% yielding an internal rate of return (IRR) of 1.6%-1.9% [3]. - UBS estimates that as most insurance companies accelerate their transition to participating insurance, the interest rate sensitivity of new business value (VNB) will significantly decrease by the first half of 2025 [3]. Winning Factors in Participating Insurance - The regulatory guidelines issued by the National Financial Regulatory Administration in June 2025 allow financially sound insurance companies to offer more competitive dividend yields on participating insurance [4]. - Key levers for exceeding the dividend payout cap include maintaining a 3-year average comprehensive investment return above the industry average (3.2%), having a regulatory rating of 1-3, ensuring the participating insurance account has been active for over 3 years, and maintaining a positive special reserve balance [4]. - Companies with stronger fulfillment rates, distribution capabilities, and faster transitions to participating insurance products are likely to gain competitive advantages [4]. Potential Winners in Participating Insurance - AIA China is positioned favorably to capitalize on the opportunities in participating insurance due to its strong investment capabilities, with an average comprehensive investment return of 4.8% from 2021 to 2024, compared to the industry average of 4% [5]. - AIA China has also demonstrated high productivity among agents, with a new business value of 13,000 RMB per agent per month in 2024, significantly higher than the 1,800-5,700 RMB range of listed peers [5]. - The company began its transition to participating insurance early, with over 80% of its new business value from long-term savings coming from participating products in the first quarter of 2025 [5].