Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a consensus outlook indicating a quarterly loss of $0.24 per share, representing a -233.3% change from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is crucial for stock movement; better-than-expected results could drive the stock higher, while a miss may lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is projected at $55.59 million, down 47.1% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 25% higher in the last 30 days, reflecting a reassessment by analysts [4]. - Ambac's Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +12.50%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [10]. - Ambac currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which indicates a neutral outlook, but the positive Earnings ESP suggests potential for an earnings surprise [12]. Historical Performance - Ambac has not been able to beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, with the last reported quarter showing a significant miss of -85.71% [13][14]. Industry Comparison - Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD), another player in the insurance industry, is expected to report a year-over-year EPS increase of +7.5% and has a positive Earnings ESP of +2.51%, indicating a likely earnings beat [18][19].